The Telangana dilemma
By SriRam Vadlamani at 15 October, 2008, 12:30 am
Elections typically are fought over water, employment or education. But, the coming elections in Andhra Pradesh are different. It is for a separate state of Telangana. To Telangana or not to Telangana is everyone’s dilemma. In 2000 there were really no major parties except TDP or Congress. It is more of a cyclical wave and anti-incumbency factor, which used to decide the election. The entry of Mega star Chiranjeevi has changed the political equations forever. Add to that, the Telangana statehood. 2 parties Telangana Rashtra Samiti and Nava Telangana Praja Party cropped up with a single agenda of a separate state Telangana.
Forming a state is not as easy as everyone thinks. There are a lot of issues to be worked out. The natural resources available, the revenues of each region, rivers, dams etc..
Once formed Telangana would be a land locked state between Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. This makes Telangana the only land locked state in south India. Not having a port for its trade and commerce is a major flaw for any state or a country. Most of the African nations are land locked with bad neighbors and hence do not prosper. However, in case of states it could be slightly different but the perennial problem persists. Telangana has to depend on Andhra, Karnataka and Maharashtra for its trade and commerce.
Other bigger issue is Hyderabad and Secunderabad. I will use the word Hyderabad for all the 3 cities (Hyderabad, Secundarabad, Rangareddy) from now on. Andhra Pradesh has too much investment in Hyderabad. None of the cities in Andhra and Telangana can match Hyderabad’s development. Most of the coastal Andhra based companies have set their shop in Hyderabad. GMR is one, which immediately comes to my mind. I am not even talking about the Information Technology investments. If we look at the IT investments, it almost sounds like a disaster for Andhra.
Where will Hyderabad go? The obvious answer is to Telangana. Isn’t that the reason why we wanted a separate state to start with?
Let us look at other possible scenarios for Hyderabad.
· Will Hyderabad go to Telangana entirely? Most likely
· Will Hyderabad be a union territory? Likely
· Will Hyderabad be a common capital like Chandigarh? Geographically difficult.
· Will Hyderabad go to Andhra Pradesh? This is the least likely possibility of all.
Chandrababu Naidu who 2 days ago had shifted his allegiance to the Telangana movment was the CEO of Andhra Pradesh for 9 years. During those years none of the cities were looked after, except Hyderabad. If Telangana technically belongs to Telangana, the question to ask Naidu is : Why have you invested so heavily in Hyderabad then and why are you supporting for a separate state now? His answer really doesn’t matter. Naidu is not supporting Telangana for Telangana’s cause. He is doing it to get back into power.
Whether it is electoral gains or a noble cause, the Telangana movement is going on a rampage. None of the parties can come into power without other’s support. Not even Congress. So, a lot depends on which parties are for and which ones are against a separate Telangana.
Let us look at the scorecard for Telangana :
For Telangana :
Telugu Desam Party (TDP)
Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS)
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Nava Telangana Praja Party – For TelanganaAgainst Telangana :
CongressUndecided
Praja Rajyam Party (Chiranjeevi is playing the people’s verdict card)
The key now rests with the Congress and the Praja Rajyam Party. TRS did not form any alliance with TDP for that reason. It is not TDP, which is a force to reckon with, but it is PRP, which is a game changer. TRS knows it very well. It had tried its luck with Congress in 2004. That alliance did not serve them well. If they have to strike an alliance it is with PRP. The ball is in PRP’s court.
Looking at the overwhelming support, it is only inevitable that Telangana will be formed. The only scenario where Telangana will not be formed in the next 5 years is, if Congress comes to power on its own. Looking at the Chiranjeevi Praja Rajyam Party’s wave and the response he is getting for his yatra, a congress sweep is highly unlikely.
The dilemma is not about Telangana. It is about Hyderabad. Everyone has their sentiments misdirected.
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I agree with you.. but, in my view telangana is going to happen and HYD will be part of it what ever said and done. It will be interesting to see if the debate was.. ANDHRA CAPITAL.. DILEMA!
I dont know if there is any city which automatically deserves to be the capital of ANDHRA if the divide happens… though we talk about vijayawada and vizag.
It will be interesting to see a post on those lines
News, Stats, and analysis about Andhra Pradesh Politics can be found here:
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Unfortunately, too many people are taking the issue of Hyderabad Way too easy. The investments are a big issue, but the bigger issue is a possibility of violence, which can be extremely detrimental. Any way you slice it, there are people who are going to be angry about it and Hyderabad will end up paying the price for it……
I personally don’t want pledge allegence to Telangana or Andhra.. My home is Hyderabad and i feel very sad thinking about the prospect of bad things happening there….